The strongest national teams in chess meet in Samarkand for 11 rounds, with the United States, India and host Uzbekistan leading a field where one half-point can change a medal race.
Registan Square, Samarkand. Photo: Shuhrataxmedov / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY-SA 3.0.
For most of the chess calendar, the best players compete for themselves. The Olympiad is the exception.
Beginning September 16 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, the 46th Chess Olympiad will bring together national teams for 11 rounds of classical chess. Four players compete in each match, with one reserve available, and the primary standings are decided by match points rather than total individual game scores. A 2½–1½ win earns the same two match points as a 4–0 sweep, although game points can later matter in tiebreaks. Protecting a half-point can matter as much as chasing a win, and a player on board four can decide a medal.
This year the scale is larger than ever. There are 208 teams in the Open section and 192 in the Women’s, making 400 teams and 1,971 players in total. The opening ceremony is September 15, with competition beginning the following day and running through September 27.
The United States Has the Strongest Roster — Again
The United States enters as the top seed despite Hikaru Nakamura sitting out his second consecutive Olympiad. Fabiano Caruana and Wesley So anchor the lineup, while Hans Niemann, Levon Aronian and Awonder Liang complete a five-player team without much of a weak point.
That depth is what makes the U.S. especially dangerous. Olympiads are often decided away from board one, and having a player of Aronian’s level potentially appearing near the bottom of the lineup is a luxury almost no other country can match.
The Americans have also learned that being the strongest team on paper guarantees very little here. They won gold in 2016 and finished second in Budapest in 2024, a result that was strong without matching the expectation attached to the top seed. One bad match late in the tournament can still undo a week of good work.
This time, though, they look like the team best equipped to avoid it.
India Comes Back as the Team to Beat
India has the more important title entering Samarkand: defending champion.
Four members of the team that won in Budapest return, with Nihal Sarin replacing Pentala Harikrishna. Arjun Erigaisi, Praggnanandhaa, Gukesh, Nihal and Vidit Gujrathi make up a lineup that is still remarkably young considering how much elite experience it already carries.
Budapest changed the way this generation is viewed. India did not simply arrive with potential and eventually grow into it; it won. Two years later, the core remains intact and almost every player has added more high-level experience since.
The challenge is doing it again in a field that looks deeper at the top. India is fully capable of another gold, but the margin separating it from the United States and Uzbekistan is small enough that a few individual games could reshape the podium.
Uzbekistan Gets Its Olympiad at Home
Uzbekistan’s Olympiad teams ahead of Budapest 2024. Photo: MiroJP / Wikimedia Commons — CC BY-SA 4.0.
No contender has a more interesting position in this event than Uzbekistan.
The country won the Olympiad in 2022 with a young lineup that arrived ahead of schedule, then followed that with bronze in Budapest. Now that same chess generation gets an Olympiad in Samarkand, in front of a home audience.
Javokhir Sindarov and Nodirbek Abdusattorov lead a team that also includes Nodirbek Yakubboev, Shamsiddin Vokhidov and Mukhiddin Madaminov. Uzbekistan may not have quite the same rating depth as the United States or India, but that has mattered less in Olympiad chess than it would in an individual event.
More importantly, this group has already shown that it fits the format. It has won together, medaled together and now plays at home. Of all the challengers to the U.S., Uzbekistan may be the most difficult team to dismiss.
China Is Back in the Conversation
China rounds out the strongest group of contenders.
Wei Yi leads the lineup, with former world champion Ding Liren returning alongside Yu Yangyi, Xu Xiangyu and Kong Xiangrui. China last won the Open Olympiad in 2018 and still has enough strength near the top of the board order to make another serious run.
Its weakness is depth compared with the Americans and Indians. Its advantage is that Wei, Ding and Yu can compete with almost anyone across the first three boards. In a format where 2½ points are all that matter, that can be enough.
Germany and the Netherlands are among the clearest threats behind the leading four. Germany has Vincent Keymer at the top of a deep roster, while the Netherlands pairs Anish Giri with Jorden van Foreest. Hungary, Armenia and Azerbaijan sit slightly farther back but remain dangerous enough to complicate the medal race.
Quiet Move Picks
Open Gold — United States. The Americans have the best combination of top-board strength and depth in the tournament. Caruana and So provide stability, while Niemann, Aronian and Liang make it difficult to find a favorable matchup farther down the board order. If the U.S. avoids the kind of dropped team points that can derail an Olympiad, this is the strongest roster in Samarkand.
Open Silver — Uzbekistan. Home advantage matters less in chess than in most sports, but there is still something to be said for playing an Olympiad in front of your own crowd with a group that has already won the event together. Abdusattorov and Sindarov give Uzbekistan enough strength at the top, while the rest of the roster has repeatedly shown it can outperform expectations in this format.
Open Bronze — India. Leaving the defending champion in third feels harsh, and India could easily win again. But the U.S. looks slightly deeper and Uzbekistan may be particularly difficult to beat at home. In a tournament this close, bronze would say more about the strength of the field than about any decline from India.
Eleven Rounds, Four Boards at a Time
The Olympiad does not have the cleanest structure for following a chess tournament. Hundreds of games happen simultaneously, early rounds can feature enormous rating gaps, and the eventual champion may never play every other serious contender.
That messiness is part of the event.
For two weeks, chess stops looking like a collection of individual careers and becomes something larger. Countries with almost no presence in elite tournaments share the same room as world champions. A draw on board four can matter more than a brilliant win on board one, and the strongest team does not need the strongest individual player.
The first round begins September 16 in Samarkand.
— Quiet Move Journal